Election Night Update - Liveblog

We’ll update this post as the night goes on.

9:00 update

If you're looking for optimism in Georgia, it's this: virtually all of the outstanding vote yet to be counted are from areas that are going heavily for Harris. When DeKalb County reported (73% in), Trump’s margin dropped in half. He currently leads by 170,000 votes with the following large blue areas still out:

• only 18% of the vote is in for Gwinnett County (Harris +22);

• 6% in Chatham (Harris +47);

• 73% in DeKalb (Harris +66);

• 78% in Fulton (Harris +44); and

• 82% in Cobb (Harris +16)

That’s ~750,000 votes yet to come in just from those five areas.

FLORIDA MOVES RIGHT
In addition to delivering for Trump for President, Rick Scott (R) has defeated Debbie Murcasel-Powell (D). This was always a long shot for Democrats and it did not hit.

Similarly, the abortion ballot question “lost,” in that voters favored it 57-43, but state law required it to reach a 60% threshhold.

8:30 update

Bottom line: we don’t know right now, and that’s okay. In 2016, the signs that Trump was going to pull off a victory were already visible by 8:30 pm EST. Those signs are not present this year. Right now, all of this information is on “offense” for Harris — that is, if she wins North Carolina and/or Georgia, she probably has a hammerlock on the Presidency. If Harris loses both states, she can still win by holding the Blue Wall, albeit more narrowly.

Here’s our breakdown.

RURAL VOTES SWINGING RIGHT
We’ve been focused on the good news for Harris, which is real, but if you want to know where Trump has made gains, it’s in rural areas. In Georgia, for example, Hall County has moved three points to the right, Stephens County by 4, and Brantley by 1.2. But outside of Hall County (~70,000 votes), most of these are tiny counties where there aren’t many votes to be had. And Harris has held the line in other rural counties in Georgia such as Bartow and Houston counties.

EXURBS SWINGING LEFT
Hamilton County, Indiana remains essentially tied (Trump +0.58%) with 60% of the vote in. Allen County remains Trump +5 with 55% in. These are both roughly seven-point swings towards Harris.

GEORGIA
We see these dynamics at play in Georgia, which is currently “too close to call.” (We tell you what that means on today’s podcast.) That’s because of those above-noted factors. Trump continues to run up the score in rural counties in Georgia, while Harris is overperforming in the Atlanta metro and exurbs, including Douglas and Rockdale counties. This truly is “too close to call.”

NORTH CAROLINA
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein has already defeated Mark Robinson; that race was called even earlier than we anticipated. Will there be “reverse coattails” — that is, will some otherwise-Republican Stein voters pull the lever for Harris?

There are not a lot of hard numbers in North Carolina, but so far Harris is doing what she needs to do to win, posting large margins not in typically-Democratic Wake, Mecklenburg, and Durham counties.

More to come!